Sensitivity Analysis and Optimisation of a Land Use and Transport Integrated Model

Laurent Gilquin, Thomas Capelle, Elise Arnaud, Clémentine Prieur

Résumé


Land Use and Transportation Integrated (LUTI) models have become a norm for representing the interactions between land use and the transportation of goods and people in a territory. Through the use of these models, urban planning policies and development scenarios can be evaluated. The calibration of LUTI models is a heavy task, involving gathering of massive amounts of data and the estimation of an important number of parameters. In this paper, the calibration of the open-source LUTI model Tranus is considered. Classical calibrations of Tranus rely on ad hoc econometric techniques and time-consuming trial and error procedures.Here, a two-step calibration that comprises global sensitivity analysis and optimisation is proposed. The sensitivity analysis presented herein is based on the replication method for the estimation of Sobol’ indices and generalised to take into account multivariate outputs. The optimisation step is an iterative process combining stochastic and deterministic procedures. The proposed calibration procedure is applied to a study area in the State of Mississippi. Compared to a previous ad hoc procedure, this new approach results in a significant improvement of the adjustment factors of Tranus while reducing drastically the calibration time.

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Ce travail est autorisé sous licence avec la Licence de paternité Creative Commons 3.0.

SFdS / SMF - Journal de la Société Française de Statistique - ISSN 2102-6238