Environmental data: multivariate Extreme Value Theory in practice.

Juan Juan Cai, Anne-Laure Fougères, Cécile Mercadier

Résumé


Let $(X_t,Y_t)$ be a bivariate stationary time series in some environmental study. We are interested to estimate the failure probability defined as $P(X_t>x,Y_t>y)$, where $x$ and $y$ are high return levelc. Foz 4he estimation of high return levels, we consider three methods from univariate extreme value theory, two of which deal with the extreme clusters. We further derive estimators for the bivariate failure probability, based on based on Draisma et al. (2004)'s approach and on Heffernan and Tawn (2004)'s approach. The comparison on different estimators is demonstrated via a simulation study. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that such a comparative study is performed. Finally, we apply the procedures to the real data set and the results are discussed.

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Ce travail est autorisé sous licence avec la Licence de paternité Creative Commons 3.0.

SFdS / SMF - Journal de la Société Française de Statistique - ISSN 2102-6238